Together in Manchester

Every year the major political parties hold their conferences in the Autumn.  In 2020 lockdowns and extended Covid regulations disrupted things. But in 2021 in-person conferences are back. But still the spectre of yet more regulations hang over the proceedings. Covid certification is now required for certain critical workers to keep their jobs. There’s a real prospect that vaccine passports may be required to take part in large events, or even to eat in restaurants.

The continued attacks on personal freedoms and liberty has seen the launch of a new campaign called Together.  Launched just a few weeks ago Together has organised events at all the major political conferences. I took the opportunity to see what they were doing at the Reform Party and Conservative Party fringe.  Watch the video in full below – featuring Richard Tice, Leader of the Reform Party; Alan Miller of the Together Campaign; and Francis Hoar, the Barrister and Human Rights Lawyer.

The heart of the campaign is the Together Declaration which, in early October 2021, has had around 100,000 signatories. The conferences provided an opportunity for leading parliamentarians, journalists and business-people to sign the declaration…a declaration that includes the following words. 

“The glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel — ‘15 million jabs to freedom’ to protect the most vulnerable — soon faded as the goalposts kept on moving. When ‘freedom day’ finally arrived, the accompanying announcement of vaccine passports meant the prospect of returning to ‘normal’ had once again slipped away.

“We are human. We know this makes us seek safety above everything else. We seek it for ourselves, we seek to protect those we love, and we strive for a safe world for our children — and sometimes rules and restrictions can help us to feel safer.

“But being ordered to produce medical certification at pubs, clubs, theatres, on public transport, at schools, universities, or anywhere else, is unwarranted and risks deepening the inequalities already present within our society.”


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Freedom Back?

New era freedom

There are signs that people-power is beginning to flex its muscle. This coming weekend the World Freedom Alliance (WFA) is organising a series of ‘demonstrations for freedom and democracy’ – literally across the globe, with especially large ones planned for the major Western capital cities, including London.

The idea that governments can tell us to stay at home – and that we, as individuals, are unclean biohazards – is an idea that’s wearing rather thin. Freedom was hard won. Its demise isn’t being accepted by a growing number who just don’t really like the look of the new, reset, normal.

Many of us who have been opposed to lockdown as a policy response to a coronavirus have been doing as much as we can to register our view that liberal democracies just don’t do this kind of thing. It’s clear that agencies and corporations are pulling strings. The media (or, rather, the legacy media as activists in the WFA call it) hasn’t really been saying much about that. The BBC has become a propagandist. Other outlets are now so dependent on government advertising spend that their futures depend on not upsetting big brother.

So those of us with a tendency towards editorial ranting have done our bit by writing for the few independent media outlets that have had the courage to take a stand. I’ve written on my own blog, Medium, Spiked, The Conservative Woman – and have conducted pro bono work for some of the more active campaign groups. But there comes a time when new titles need to be spawned. And this is it.

The new era, as far as I’m concerned, isn’t about resetting. It’s about reclaiming: freedom of speech, freedom to associate, freedom to protest. Those are three of the most fundamental pillars of Western democracy and civilisation. Authoritarian governments lockdown and repress and force people to stay at home. Democratic governments don’t – or, rather, shouldn’t. When they have a manufactured excuse – a pseudo-pandemic – they seem to be able to do what they like.

But the police suppression of citizens claiming their right to protest was something of a turning point. The BBC’s Mark Easton implied as much in yesterday’s BBC news reports. And now attention has turned to parliament where, this week, MPs get to debate and vote on increasing police powers to clamp down on protest – and on the extension of the Coronavirus Act.

Like Easton I sense that the tide is turning. But we need to discuss what comes after the shock of the new: the new era after democracy was taken away from us without most people even noticing. Perhaps society was bought. Furlough payments, home working and cheap loan money has created a new dependent class. But the cost to the nation has been crippling – to the extent that many are even questioning whether money loses its ability to be a store of value (enter the negative interest rate).

Hence this site. I know that many have views and want to take part in the debate. Please participate. If you’d like to be published please send me your pitch ideas.

Rishi’s Tax Dish

The UK Chancellor’s statement last Wednesday included lots of grandiose pronouncements about recovery and growth — but the most significant elements of his budget were tax rises that will stifle that growth.

The increase of corporation tax (business tax on profits) to 25% (for the largest and most profitable companies) will result in the UK’s headline rate being precisely twice the rate of Ireland’s — our nearest and most competitive nation for foreign direct investment.

Ireland has long played its hand as one of the most desirable places for large multinationals to set up shop. But the UK was (prior to March 2020) very successful in competing with Ireland given the importance of London as a money market. Our relatively low personal taxation rates helped too — as well as the relative size of the UK market compared to Ireland’s tiddly one. And why set up an operation in Ireland when staff would soon become disgruntled with higher rate tax kicking in (at 40%) on any income above around £30,000 (and tiny personal tax-free allowances)?

But with a Corporation Tax rate of 25% in play the semantic personal taxation differences between the UK and Ireland won’t matter that much. Twice the rate. That’s the headline. The Irish will be popping corks. And, of course, with everyone working from home what’s to stop businesses flip-flopping all over the place to suit their profit recognition needs? It’s not as though staff have to be where the office is.

The story was very different just over a year ago. The UK’s corporation tax rate of 19% was on a downward trajectory. The rate was supposed to be 17% by now, but that was cancelled once lockdown and furlough and the Covid regulation paraphernalia kicked in — and the associated spending splurge pushed sovereign debt ever upwards. It’s now at grotesque levels in order to support cripplingly expensive and ill-conceived interventions like track and trace and apparently endless furlough (i.e., generous unemployment payments in drag).

Therefore, pronouncements about recovery and growth ring pretty hollow when the most obvious basis for companies investing — having the investable profits to plough back into the business — is undermined.

Brexit was supposed to provide the UK with the ability to be independent minded and create massive competitive advantage. Some were even talking about slashing the CT rate. Northern Ireland was even provided special dispensation to set its own rate — to compete aggressively with Ireland. But that option is out the window now that it’s trapped in the EU single market — with a corporation tax now twice the rate of the nation with whom it shares a land border. And the so-called Brexit “deal” with the EU clearly isn’t yet complete when herb growers in Yorkshire are not free to export their products to another UK region. It’s pretty fundamental that all parts of the UK should be able to trade with each other unfettered. But fundamentals have been lost along with liberty during lockdown.

Where, in the past, Chancellors could talk about doing things to encourage growth we could argue the merits, or otherwise, of the policies in the context of a normal economy. Now we’re in a situation where a vast chunk of business is closed through no fault of its own. Indeed, many big/profitable businesses that would have been in the target frame for the 25% corporation tax hit have gone or are about to fall at the next hurdle. Profitable “major multiple” retail chains are like hen’s teeth and the travel and tourism sectors are decimated. Some tech has done well — but Amazon’s European operations are ostensibly based in Luxembourg (another low tax haven in the EU) and other beneficiaries of lockdown (like Zoom or Microsoft) will not be recognising the bulk of their profits in the UK any time soon.

Conservative chancellors have argued in the past that hiking corporation tax (when suggested by the Labour Party) would have the effect of substantially reducing the tax take. Businesses might move their HQ operations to other markets with lower rates. Or they might avoid excessive profits by recognising them in odd ways. Creative accounting is made more attractive if the consequence of reporting profit is a huge tax bill. All these arguments still hold. But now it’s a Conservative government that’s spending (and borrowing) at levels we’ve never seen before. Repayment of this debt will be impossible given the forecast paltry growth rates we’ll see after consumers deplete whatever savings they’ve built up during the last year of near constant lockdowns. Indeed, they may not spend it at all if they know that the ending of furlough will be followed by an extended period of unemployment or under-employment.

It could have been so different. Lockdown as a policy response was conceived by the Chinese and ill-conceived for a so-called liberal democracy. But to kick business and wealth creators when the trading circumstances are so dire for so many feels like sheer vindictiveness.

Covidistas

Even the mainstream media admit that the latest lockdown will result in a huge hit to the economy. But there’s precious little sympathy being offered to the people who have provided the money to allow governments to function, ever since governments became a thing.

After all, goes the government line, we have to protect the NHS. It’s almost as if the NHS was sufficient reason for itself.

But that logic is applied elsewhere in government too. The Covid response is showing us just how vast government has become and the extent to which it can remove freedom. And that has been as big a shock to me as anyone. 

Just over three years ago, after an entire career in the private sector, I decided to take up a position as an advisor, a Specialist, within one of the government departments in Whitehall (DIT). Specialists are typically drawn from industry and apply their knowledge to perform roles in policy development, trade negotiations etc. My role was to persuade software companies to invest in the UK. However, last March, the role changed when the government announced its first variant of lockdown. Several mutations have followed.

Travel was essentially banned. Investors could not visit, and I could not visit them. All civil servants were sent home. And because potential investor companies were effectively banned from coming to the UK, inward investment opportunities fell off a cliff. I stayed a few further months to help as best I could, but I felt I was not providing value to the taxpayer, so left the role before Christmas.

The UK civil service employs some 430,000, but hundreds of thousands more are hired in as contractors, specialists and suppliers. The civil service is only a small percentage of total public sector employment. Add the NHS, local government and quangos and the total payroll is close to 6million. At least the same number again are dependent on government spending to sustain their employment. The civil service awards huge contracts to professional services firms for myriad specialist functions. In addition, spending by public sector employees sustains other sectors such as retail, construction and hospitality (in normal times). 

But, since March, public sector dependency entered a whole new ballpark: furlough. As of August, some 12 per cent of UK employees were using the scheme. Furlough means that more than 50 per cent of the UK workforce is dependent on the government. Add support packages for the self-employed and it’s probably closer to 60 per cent. Add those on unemployment benefits and it looks as if two-thirds of the population is government-dependent.

Those left in private sector employment, what are they up to? Many work for the big supermarkets. Many are employed by Amazon and the big technology companies or Deliveroo or Just Eat. The employed dependence on big companies, enriched by Covid-response, has become greater while small and medium-sized firms have gone to the wall. The ones that are left are teetering. A study by the ONS published in August indicated that some two-thirds of UK businesses were at risk of insolvency – not as a result of Covid, but because of lockdowns

Covid response has delivered everything that Jeremy Corbyn wanted, with bells on. The UK economy has become debt-dependent to eye-watering levels. Total public debt stands at over £2.1 trillion, with much more to come. This year alone the Chancellor will add close to £400billion to public debt. In relative terms this is about ten times (in current monetary value) the amount we received under the post-war Marshall Plan. We are told the cost of the debt is cheap. But this level of public sector debt is without parallel. It will end in more tears. 

Lockdown, in short, is an economy killer, without just cause. There also appears to be no way out. On Tuesday Chris Whitty advised us that 1 in 50 people in the UK currently have Covid-19. But of these, just one in a hundred will die because of it. Probably less, given that the test for Covid (PCR) is just so bad at finding it. 

We are told that wards are overrun, but they’re overrun every winter – and the Nightingale Hospitals we built to cope with overruns can’t be staffed because perfectly well staff are being sent home because they’re being tested constantly using PCR tests that can’t seem to find illness. 

The UK has officially become a Potemkin Village. Most of our workforce now depends on money we don’t have. Our productive sector is waning, our innovation is tanking, and investment has nowhere to go if start-ups don’t start and scale-up businesses have no markets.

(This article was originally published in The Conservative Woman)